A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
